Boy, used to be NFL wild-card weekend wild.
We now transfer on to the Divisional Round.
One in every of these video games that I am wagering on is further special to me (more on that in correct a 2nd).
The opposite sport that I am at the side of in my picks — smartly, let’s correct advise the jury is quiet out, so I am going with player props instead.
Let’s dive into my simplest bets for this weekend’s video games.
The Green Bay Packers upset the Dallas Cowboys as 7-level side road favorites and now obtain the pleasure of going to San Francisco to face the discontinuance-seeded 49ers. This is also a fight between historically connected NFC franchises, and this matchup brings support childhood nostalgia for me of watching the Niners in the 90s.
I’m livid about this one.
The Packers were celebrated since Week 10. That is when their offense in the end stumbled on its footing. In the occasion you did not know, let me be the first to show you that the Packers enjoy the youngest offense in the NFL. And that younger offense has improved in the center of the season dramatically.
Since Week 10, the Packers offense ranks third in DVOA and fourth in anticipated aspects added with Jordan Delight in beneath center. Green Bay is legitimately factual through offense.
Alternatively, the opposite is true of its defense. That unit has been unpleasant.
The Packers defense ranks 28th in defensive DVOA and 25th in EPA per play. Be aware, Green Bay allowed 30 aspects to the Panthers in Week 16. These 30 aspects got as much as a Panthers offense that didn’t rating for the closing eight quarters of the season.
So with that, I’m taking the 49ers team whole over 30.5.
The 49ers offense is smartly-rested and wholesome after sitting out this previous week, as S.F. loved its first-round bye. I perceive the possibility in wagering on an offense that, at kickoff, is now not going to enjoy played a predominant snap since ahead of the new calendar 365 days. Alternatively, I instruct the 49ers enjoy a form of offense that doesn’t originate up sluggish.
They retain watch over the line of scrimmage with their speeding attack and manufacture originate receiving suggestions early in video games. This 49ers offense ended the season because one of the best squad in the NFL, and it correct matches up smartly in opposition to the Packers defense.
PICK: 49ers team whole Over 30.5 aspects
I lean in opposition to the Chiefs to duvet due to the stress of this sport is squarely on the Bills.
The Bills are the favorites. They’re the elevated seed and the sport is in Buffalo, where Josh Allen is much better than on the side road in the postseason.
This is the first side road playoff sport for Patrick Mahomes, which is an excellent feat. He’s played in 15 playoff video games. Twelve of these were at dwelling and three were neutral-situation Mighty Bowl video games.
Alternatively, I’m going to play two props in this sport due to I’m now not totally cheerful deciding on a sport winner magnificent now.
Prop No. 1: Isiah Pacheco 62.5 speeding yards
My first prop wager is on the Chiefs running support Isiah Pacheco having over 62.5 speeding yards. As mentioned above, this is the first time this Chiefs squad has played a side road playoff sport since 2015. The atmosphere in Buffalo will seemingly be loud, and one technique to silence a crowd is by running the soccer, due to running the soccer is “less difficult” than passing in the noise, and it establishes a bodily mindset.
The Chiefs rushed for 245 yards the closing time they were in Buffalo. The Bills are additionally 21st in speeding defensive EPA and are with out a majority of starters at linebacker and security.
This is a beat-up defense.
Chiefs will instruct to come to a decision out at the line of scrimmage Sunday evening.
PICK: Isiah Pacheco Over 62.5 speeding yards
Prop No. 2: Travis Kelce 5.5 receptions
Chiefs tight discontinuance Travis Kelce is in the support of simplest Jerry Rice in playoff receptions, yards and touchdowns. He has always shined in enormous video games and even closing weekend — with three uncharacteristic drops — he caught seven passes for 71 yards.
Kelce is now not losing three passes in Buffalo, especially pondering the climate will seemingly be necessary better this weekend than it used to be when Kansas Metropolis hosted the Dolphins closing week.
The Bills will additionally be missing the defenders wished to guard Kelce in this sport. Buffalo used to be missing four starters at linebacker and in the secondary in opposition to Pittsburgh, after which misplaced three more players in these two spots by the discontinuance of Monday evening.
I savor Kelce over 5.5 receptions.
PICK: Travis Kelce Over 5.5 receptions
Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five rather about a teams. He started at magnificent handle for the College of Oregon for 3 seasons and used to be a 2nd-team All-Pac-12 preference his senior 365 days. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz
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