2024 NBA playoff preview: Clippers vs. Mavericks series breakdown and prediction
The Western Convention’s fourth-seeded Los Angeles Clippers (51-31) will face the fifth-seeded Dallas Mavericks (50-32) in the first spherical of the 2024 NBA playoffs. Here’s a rematch of support-to-support first-spherical series in 2020 and 2021, both of which the Clippers received — in six and 7 games, respectively.
Extra series previews:
East: Bucks-Pacers | Cavs-Magic
West: Wolves-Suns | Clippers-Mavs
How the Clippers bought right here
The getting old Clippers began the season with a two-time Finals MVP (Kawhi Leonard), a perennial All-Star (Paul George) and a worn MVP (Russell Westbrook) and discovered it used to be now not ample, even with a hefty luxury tax bill that paid for hundreds of abet around them. So, they swung giant for one more Los Angeles native and one-time MVP, James Harden, who had begged off his third team in as many years.
And it clicked. For some time, anyway. It took five straight losses for head coach Tyronn Lue to kind out his rotation (and nick up time between Harden and Westbrook, in explicit) earlier than this forgotten contender reestablished itself as a indispensable probability. From mid-November to early February — half the season, in actuality — the Clips posted the league’s handiest chronicle (31-8) and offensive rating (122.3 factors per 100 possessions).
Then, the an identical thing that occurs to each worn team happened to this worn team. Across the All-Star damage, all americans began coasting, and they barely accomplished above .500 for the final 33 games of the yr. This used to be continuously the wretchedness about pairing Westbrook, who on the total cares too important, and Harden, who is merely the opposite, with Leonard and George, whose nicely being has been a wretchedness for his or her complete L.A. tenure.
It might possibly like to smooth shock nobody that Leonard and Harden will enter the playoffs with lingering knee and foot injuries, respectively. Worse, even though, is how Lue outlined his well-known particular person-laden team’s identity in most unusual weeks.
“Intention we now like an identity? I feel, yeah: We’re soft,” he mentioned. “That will most definitely be an identity.”
How the Mavericks bought right here
The Mavericks re-signed Kyrie Irving over the summer season, no topic their 11th-intention dwell final season, and reconfigured the roster around him and Luka Dončić. They drafted Dereck Intelligent II and Olivier-Maxence Prosper, signed Grant Williams, reunited with Seth Curry, rediscovered Dante Exum in Serbia and took a flier on journeyman Derrick Jones Jr. And smooth they had been struggling to dwell above .500 attain February.
So, they reconfigured the roster around Dončić and Irving once more on the change time limit, dealing Williams, Curry and the rights to two future first-spherical draft picks for big men P.J. Washington and Daniel Gafford.
It reeked of desperation. With the exception of, it labored (on the least till these picks attain due). Dallas sandwiched seven straight wins around the All-Star damage, hit a rough patch and rode a 16-2 stretch to stable the fifth seed.
It sounds easy, but it with out a doubt would now not personal important to originate around Dončić and Irving, goodbye as you will locate the supreme blend of prepared and selfless characteristic gamers. A hint of Intelligent right here. A whisk of Washington and Gafford there. A sprinkle of Maxi Kleber. There’s your frontcourt. A bit Exum and Jones. Some Tim Hardaway Jr. A splash of Josh Green. These are the wings of a 50-purchase team when Dončić is performing at an MVP stage.
(Severely, even though, Dončić averaged a 34-9-10 on 49/38/79 taking pictures splits. Unreal.)
Face to face
The Clippers received the celebrated-or-garden-season series, 2-1.
All three meetings took intention earlier than Christmas, so Dallas used to be weeks from changing into the team it’s miles this present day, and there are hundreds more random causes to now not intention too important faith in their three-sport sample size.
Their first assembly came in Harden’s third sport as a Clipper, and Westbrook used to be initiating beside him — a combination Lue soon abandoned. Dončić and Irving countered with 71 factors on 62.5% taking pictures in a 144-126 blowout. Afterward, Harden lamented, “I did now not like a practicing camp. I didn’t like a preseason.”
The Clippers returned the desire in a 101-88 purchase two weeks later that marked Dallas’ worst scoring output of the first three months. The Mavericks had been with out Intelligent and Kleber and started Richaun Holmes at center, so Ivica Zubac had a field day (11 factors, 14 rebounds) for L.A. Leonard and Harden mixed for 16 factors on 20 images on the 2nd night of a support-to-support, and George used to be the supreme player on the ground.
The final assembly used to be the most bizarre. No George for the Clippers; no Irving, Intelligent, Kleber or Green for the Mavericks. It used to be a one-level sport in the fourth quarter till Leonard’s 9-0 whisk fueled a 120-111 victory.
The supreme takeaway? Dončić and Irving once more. In their two games together against the Clippers, they mixed to practical a 64-11-8 on 54/43/100 splits. Give them their unusual supporting solid and honest genuine God.
Matchup to study
How enact the Clippers dwell Dončić?
Dončić’s eyes win awfully broad every time he works Harden or Zubac genuine into a transformation, and he’ll enact that — loads. Even George has a now not easy time guessing which comes subsequent, the force or a stepback. Dončić’s size and footwork give him the likelihood between taking pictures over the tip or getting to his field, and no topic the Clippers threw at him — hedges, double groups, every part — did now not work.
Heck, even when the Clippers had youthful legs underneath them, they had no answer for Dončić in support-to-support first-spherical playoff meetings in 2020 and 2021. He averaged a 34-9-10 on 49.4% taking pictures from the sector (39.2% from deep) in these 13 games against L.A., and he used to be barely worn ample to make a choice a beer.
The supreme answer used to be a weaker Dallas team around him and Leonard, who used to be taking part in to his peak stage on the time. Can he match Dončić once more? And if he cannot offensively, how important can he take care of defensively? Leonard spent little time defending Dončić this season. Lend a hand in the 2021 playoffs, even though, Leonard drew Dončić as his principal task and made him work for each bucket. Asking Leonard to match Dončić offensively and limit him on the opposite conclude is loads to ask of anybody, let on my own any individual on a balky knee.
Dončić also did now not like a security valve worship Irving when final these groups met in the playoffs. That lets in the Mavericks to win far more creative with off-ball circulation to work matchups in Dončić’s desire. Passe knowledge says the Clippers like two of the supreme defensive alternatives probably to throw on the Mavericks’ well-known particular person, but even old school knowledge stands little probability against this model of Dončić.
Closing lineups
Los Angeles Clippers
Leonard, George and Harden are mainstays of the Clippers’ closing lineup. Zubac and Norman Powell spherical out their handiest five-man unit, a team that has outscored opponents by a startling 18.4 factors per 100 possessions (albeit in a full of 121 minutes). But Lue likes to transfer with his gut, and his gut is on the total honest genuine.
We can also look Mason Plumlee in intention of Zubac or Terance Mann as a replacement of Powell or Amir Coffey in the mix, looking out on how important Dončić is cooking Zubac or who has the hotter hand. It takes some serious guts to wretchedness any Dončić-led team in a runt-ball contest, but Lue has that in him, too.
Dallas Mavericks
The Mavericks are merely as probably to fiddle with their closing unit. Dončić and Irving are the supreme two locks to full games. Washington wants to be in there, too. In the middle, enact they need Intelligent’s leap, Gafford’s dependability or Kleber’s spacing? On the flee, enact they need Jones’ size, Exum’s taking pictures or Green’s vitality? These are the questions that Dallas head coach Jason Kidd will most definitely be asking repeatedly.
For the chronicle: Kidd’s most worn and most winning lineup factors Dončić, Irving, Jones, Washington and Gafford, who like outscored opponents by 15.5 factors per 100 possessions. That they like got played handiest 176 minutes together tells you the map unusual this fit is — and the map far more tinkering there will most definitely be.
Prediction
Mavericks in seven. If the final month is any indication, the series is now not going to be so cease, because the Mavericks had been the West’s handiest team over the season’s final six weeks, establish for two meaningless losses on the tip. The Clippers, for all their veterans, deserve the succor of the doubt. They’re a team that can even flip a transformation, goodbye as they are healthy. Even supposing, Harden-led playoff groups all too on the total flip the change off.
Assortment odds
Los Angeles Clippers (+100)
Dallas Mavericks (-120)
Assortment time table (all events Jap)
Sport 1: Solar., April 21 @ L.A. Clippers (3: 30 p.m. ET, ABC)
Sport 2: Tue., April 23 @ L.A. Clippers (10 p.m. ET, TNT)
Sport 3: Fri., April 26 @ Dallas (8 p.m. ET, ESPN)
Sport 4: Solar., April 28 @ Dallas (3: 30 p.m. ET, ABC)
Sport 5: Wed., Can also 1 @ L.A. Clippers (TBD)
Sport 6: Fri., Can also 3 @ Dallas (TBD)
Sport 7: Solar., Can also 5 @ L.A. Clippers (TBD)*
if well-known
