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IEA warns of considerable oversupply within the oil market next year – Commerzbank

In its monthly picture, the Worldwide Energy Company (IEA) painted a bleak image for oil query, Commerzbank’s Commodity Analyst Carsten Fritsch notes.

China to perceive an expand in query of 180,000 bpd in 2024

“Within the first half of of the year, it elevated by handiest 800,000 barrels per day in contrast with the outdated year. Right here is handiest one-third of the expand within the outdated year. For the year as a complete, the IEA expects query to develop by 900,000 barrels per day. In July, query for oil in China was down year-on-year for the fourth consecutive month.”

“The IEA now expects China to perceive an expand in query of 180,000 barrels per day in 2024. The enlargement engine China has thus become a lunge on boost. For next year, the IEA expects handiest a tiny acceleration. World oil query is anticipated to expand by 950 thousand barrels per day, with query in China rising by 260 thousand barrels per day. This variety that global query boost would stagger within the help of the IEA’s anticipated expand in non-OPEC oil offer.”

“As a consequence, the name on OPEC oil will tumble to a median of 26.2 million barrels per day next year. That is a correct 1 million barrels per day no longer up to OPEC’s recent production. OPEC would therefore finally would prefer to diminish offer next year to cope with a long way off from a surplus. The gradual expand in production that has been deliberate in the past would consequence in a considerable oversupply.”

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